Carson Valley Nevada Real Estate Market Update: June 2009

    The Carson Valley Nevada Real Estate Market saw 56 homes sold in June, up from 40 sales in May and 37 sales in April, so the good news is volume is trending up.

    The average per square foot price ticked up slightly to $151.03, but the sales price as a percentage of asking slipped half a percentage point to 96.06%. These two indicators moved in opposite directions. Why, you ask? Well, while 75 % of the sales in June were under $350,000, 25% of the sales were higher. That’s 4% more sales this month than last month in the higher end markets. Higher end sales typically sell for a higher per square foot price, increasing the average per square foot price, but they also put downward pressure on the percentage of sales price to asking price ratio. The ratio for sales $300,000 and under was 96.87%, almost a full percentage point higher than the total market. That’s because the market is much more competitive in the lower price ranges. We are still seeing multiple contracts and prices being bid up from asking for properties under $250,000.

    So how did the absorption rate end up? Let’s take a look…

    • The Carson Valley area (Minden, Gardnerville & Genoa) currently has 453 homes on the market.
    • In June, 56 homes sold
    • 454 / 56 = 8.08 months

    The absorption rate for the Carson Valley made a 2 point improvement after holding steady for three months. We are on the verge of a normal market from a volume perspective, which is defined as 5-7 months of inventory on the market. When you compare this to an absorption rate of 27 months in January, it is clear our market has made great strides towards normalcy. I had previously predicted that we’d see single digit absorption rates in the third quarter of this year – so our market improved faster than I had anticipated during June. However, it is important to keep in mind that spring and early summer are typically the busiest periods of time in the market.

    Of the 453 homes on the market, 26 are bank owned and 46 are short sales. That means that 16% of our market is distressed. The biggest question of the day is whether more bank owned properties are coming. With everything that we’ve heard in our market, we are anticipating a second wave. It remains to be seen how the banks will dole out these properties. Even if they continue to trickle them out and inventory doesn’t spike upwards, the continued practice of reducing prices for a relatively quick sale will continue to put downward pressure on prices in our valley.

    Today, there are 127 properties under contract / pending in the Carson Valley. That’s a lot of pending sales in the Carson Valley to close in the coming months. 

    With the first time homebuyer credit expiring on December 1, 2008, there’s a big incentive for homebuyers to get out there and buy a home. Will it be extended? I believe it will be, but don’t bet on it! If you’re a buyer debating buying a home right now in Northern Nevada, don’t wait for these statistics to continue to trend upward. It may just cost you the house of your dreams.

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    Christianne O'Malley

    I am an award winning top-producing Realtor with over $300 million in lifetime sales. I represent buyers and sellers across Northern Nevada including Reno, Sparks, Carson City, Dayton, Virginia City, Minden, Gardnerville, Genoa and beyond.

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