Carson Valley Real Estate – First Quarter 2013 Market Report
First, let me apologize as it’s been quite a while since we’ve posted on our blog here at GreatNevadaHomes.com. Typically, I try to post on regular intervals but the market got control of me, along with some great additions to out team, I fell out of practice…so over the next couple of posts, I am going to attempt to bring you up to speed on what is happening in this super hot market. We are going to catch up by providing a Q1-2013 (and a Q2-2013 post to follow) analyzing year over year change to showcase how much our market has changed in a year.
First, let’s look at the Carson Valley homes sales numbers for the First Quarter of 2012:
- 153 homes sold
- The Average asking price was $237,977
- The Median asking price was $172,000
- The Average selling price was $223,102
- The Median selling price was $172,500
- The Average Days on Market was 156
- The Median Days on Market was 112
- The total amount of sales was $34,134,649
- Of the 153 sales, 90 of them were distressed sales of some sort (bank owned, short sale, court-ordered sale, etc.) = 59% distress rate.
Now, compare that to what happened during the First Quarter of 2013:
- 165 homes sold
- The Average asking price was $291,297
- The Median asking price was $234,900
- The Average selling price was $280,968
- The Median selling price was $229,000
- The Average Days on Market was 150
- The Median Days on Market was 105
- The total amount of sales was $46,359,772
- Of the 165 sales, only 48 of them were distressed sales of some sort (bank owned, short sale, court-ordered sale, etc.) = 29% distress rate.
So what does all that mean? Let’s see if we can divine something meaningful from the above data. First, the number of homes is up – it’s not up an overwhelmingly large amount, but on an annualized basis it would represent another 48 homes per year. Next, let’s consider selling prices. (It’s always nice to consider asking prices, but truly, the price that counts is the price the buyer and seller agree upon that becomes the selling price.) In Q1 2012, the average selling price was $223,102 compared to Q1 2013 of $280,968. That’s a 26% increase year over year. That’s pretty consistent with what we’ve been telling buyers and sellers, and it shows no sign of slowing. Comparitively, let’s examine the Median selling prices. In Q1 2012, the median selling price was $172,500 compared to Q1 2013 of $229,000. The median selling price year over year grew by 32.7%.
So what’s the difference between Median and Average and why do I care? Median and Average calculations look at the same data, but from different perspectives. Both represent the total of all home sales values in a particular area, and attempt to produce a “mid-range” figure that straddles the least expensive and most expensive homes for sale. But beyond these similarities, the median and average numbers diverge to become very different numbers. The median often equates to an affordability index providing the exact midpoint where 50% of the homes are more expensive and 50% of the homes are less expensive. The problem is one very highly priced home in the mix can skew this number significantly, so it’s always good to consider the average as well. In this instance, both the median and the average selling prices are showing between a 26% to a 33% increase in prices year over year.
Tomorrow, we’ll be taking a look at the second quarter of 2013 and see if the trend continues. I will be the first to admit that when the pundits starting hyping Carson City in 2010 saying it would be the one of the top ten hottest real estate markets in the country in 2014, I was skeptical. It’s hard to deny when the math supports this kind of correction. The question will be whether this is a lasting correction or yet another bubble.
With that, we’ll leave you with a funny anonymous quote – “An optimist will tell you the glass is half-full; the pessimist, half-empty; and the engineer will tell you the glass is twice the size it needs to be”.
(Data provided courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service and excludes manufactured and shared ownership housing for Area 300, known as the Carson Valley which includes Gardnerville, Genoa, Minden, Indian Hills area of Carson City, China Springs, Spring Valley, Topaz Ranch Estates and outlying areas.)