Carson Valley Real Estate – Second Quarter 2013 Market Report
Here is our second quarter 2013 market recap that I promised you in yesterday’s post to get us almost caught up to where we are today in the Carson Valley real estate market.Today’s post will analyze the year over year change to showcase how much our market has changed in a year.
First, let’s look at the Carson Valley homes sales numbers for the Second Quarter of 2012:
- 190 homes sold
- The Average asking price was $245,474
- The Median asking price was $204,000
- The Average selling price was $233,313
- The Median selling price was $195,000
- The Average Days on Market was 137
- The Median Days on Market was 99
- The total amount of sales was $44,329,655
- Of the 190 sales, 85 of them were distressed sales of some sort (bank owned, short sale, court-ordered sale, etc.) = 44.7% distress rate.
Now, compare that to what happened during the Second Quarter of 2013:
- 217 homes sold
- The Average asking price was $313,050
- The Median asking price was $247,900
- The Average selling price was $297,388
- The Median selling price was $239,900
- The Average Days on Market was 156
- The Median Days on Market was 97
- The total amount of sales was $64,533,216
- Of the 217 sales, only of them were distressed sales of some sort (bank owned, short sale, court-ordered sale, etc.) = 29% distress rate.
So, we can see that the trend continued through the Second Quarter of 2013. The number of sales is up year over year, AND it’s up quarter to quarter. That’s not a reach, though, because April, May and June is the Spring Market. It’s reasonable to expect that we’ll see the highest number of sales in the Second Quarter of any given year. If we consider the Average Selling Price, the Q2 2012 average selling price was $233,313, compared to the Q2 2013 of $297,388. That’s a huge jump…BUT, it’s even more convincing when you consider the Q1 2013 average selling price of $280,968. Prices are very obviously on their way up. Year over year, the increase was 27%, which is the same increase we saw with Q1 2013 over Q1 2012.
So what will the Q3 2013 Market Report show us? Well, it’s August 27 today, and we’re almost 2/3 of the way through the third quarter. We’ve seen a continued frenzy in the Carson Valley real estate market, and I suspect the trend will continue. If it holds through year’s end, we’ll be able to say definitively that 2013 experienced an approximate 30% market gain adjustment over 2012, showcasing the fact that our market fell more than it should have in 2008/2009 due to the financial crisis. I personally believe that we will not continue to see these types of gains in 2014 and that buyers will refuse to continue to pay those year over year gains, stating their fear of another bubble. I think a continued increase in interest rates will slow down the frenzy and help put a lid on market appreciation. The good news is we appear to be at the tail end of short sales and foreclosures. Very few homes are actually foreclosed upon today as compared to 2008 and 2009, and many homes have “righted” their value with the 27% market gain. There will continue to be a trickle of bank owned listings that banks have in current inventory, and they will slowly release them into the market. Now, every day they hold a home in inventory, the value is increasing, so it behooves them to release them slowly. As such, the entire portfolio of homes increases in value and the value of the homes in the region as a whole.
(Data provided courtesy of the Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service and excludes manufactured and shared ownership housing for Area 300, known as the Carson Valley which includes Gardnerville, Genoa, Minden, Indian Hills area of Carson City, China Springs, Spring Valley, Topaz Ranch Estates and outlying areas.)